Analysis of the variation and prediction of solar radiation in the Urbina area, using the theory of chaos

Abstract

The variation of incident radiation in the Urbina zone (UTM x754579, y9835357; 3646 masl), located in the Altoandino paramo region of the Chimborazo province, is analyzed in order to know its dynamics and the effects of the geographical position and height with respect to at sea level, using the Chaos Theory. To control the anomalous data, the simple non-linear noise reduction method was applied; Then, a multidimensional phase reconstruction was carried out in space, determining the Lyapunov coefficients, entropy and fractal dimension of the system, allowing its dynamics and variation over time to be described. It is shown to be a chaotic (non-linear) system, by presenting more than one positive Lyapunov coefficient. In addition, the data are predicted over time and it is verified that there are no significant differences between the measured and predicted series, using the Bootstrap method.